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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Jacoby won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1543

Elo1515

Vitor PetrinovsDustin JacobyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:44

Style matchupVitor Petrino: WrestlervsDustin Jacoby: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vitor Petrino enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Jacoby is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Vitor Petrino has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Vitor Petrino has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino

Red Corner

Dustin Jacoby

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1543

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Pedro · Mar 24

SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24

SUBvs Austen Lane · Jul 25

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25

vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26

latest

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricDustin Jacoby

3.24

Strikes / min

5.40

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.60

TDs / 15 min

0.32

79%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor PetrinoDustin Jacoby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetDustin Jacoby

By target zone

34% acc · 68%

Head

33% acc · 51%

86% acc · 15%

Body

78% acc · 16%

70% acc · 18%

Leg

83% acc · 33%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 87%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Petrino rounds

even

Dustin Jacoby rounds

Round 1Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 96

Sig Strikes

45 / 96

41.7%

Sig Str %

46.7%

40 / 96

Total Strikes

47 / 100

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Jacoby	12 / 32	12 / 32	0 / 0
1	Vitor Petrino	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 1
2	Dustin Jacoby	18 / 36	18 / 36	0 / 0
2	Vitor Petrino	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0
3	Dustin Jacoby	15 / 28	17 / 32	0 / 0
3	Vitor Petrino	11 / 23	11 / 23	0 / 3

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19