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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Vitor Petrino won · SUB R1
Elo1543
Elo1449
Austen Lane

Vitor PetrinovsAusten LaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Vitor Petrino won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:16

Model Prediction: Vitor Petrino wins(79.2%)

Actual result: Vitor Petrino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Petrino at -650 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vitor Petrino has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Vitor Petrino has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Petrino
Red Corner
VS
Austen Lane
Blue Corner
-650
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+420
(19%)
1543
Elo
1449
28
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'6"
195.58 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor PetrinoW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tyson Pedro · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · May 24
L
KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Dec 24
W
KOvs Thomas Petersen · Oct 25
W
vs Steven Asplund · Mar 26
latest
Austen LaneL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Sep 23
L
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24
L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25
L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor PetrinoMetricAusten Lane
3.24
Strikes / min
2.70
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.45
51%
Strike defense
39%
2.60
TDs / 15 min
1.50
79%
Takedown defense
33%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1526 vs 1475Strikes3.2 vs 2.7Takedowns2.6 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -0.4
Vitor PetrinoAusten Lane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301463149515281560← oldermost recent →
Vitor Petrino(9 fights)Austen Lane(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +94.5|Blue -94.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor PetrinoTargetAusten Lane

By target zone

2
50% acc · 67%
Head
0
0
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
1
50% acc · 33%
Leg
2
100% acc · 67%

By position

1
50% acc · 33%
Distance
3
75% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
2
50% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vitor Petrino rounds
0
even
0
Austen Lane rounds
Round 1Vitor Petrino edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:03
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
3 / 4
50%
Sig Str %
75%
17 / 22
Total Strikes
3 / 4
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Austen Lane3 / 43 / 40 / 00
1Vitor Petrino3 / 617 / 221 / 12

Vitor Petrino

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights6