Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC R3

Elo1367

Elo1467

Vitor MirandavsMarvin VettoriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Miranda at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Miranda

Red Corner

Marvin Vettori

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1367

Elo

1467

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor MirandaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Collier · Dec 14

KOvs Clint Hester · Aug 15

KOvs Marcelo Guimaraes · Mar 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 16

vs Abu Azaitar · Jul 18

latest

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor MirandaMetricMarvin Vettori

2.98

Strikes / min

4.74

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.55

58%

Strike defense

56%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.41

50%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor MirandaMarvin Vettori

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Miranda(7 fights)Marvin Vettori(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.8|Blue +100.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +215.0|Blue -215.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor MirandaTargetMarvin Vettori

By target zone

14% acc · 25%

Head

36% acc · 72%

46% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 9%

61% acc · 49%

Leg

93% acc · 19%

By position

29% acc · 90%

Distance

42% acc · 96%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Miranda rounds

even

Marvin Vettori rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:13

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 161

Sig Strikes

69 / 161

29.7%

Sig Str %

42.3%

74 / 186

Total Strikes

81 / 176

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marvin Vettori	25 / 58	27 / 63	1 / 1
1	Vitor Miranda	8 / 46	9 / 47	0 / 0
2	Marvin Vettori	17 / 48	25 / 56	1 / 3
2	Vitor Miranda	15 / 52	24 / 62	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	27 / 55	29 / 57	1 / 3
3	Vitor Miranda	28 / 63	41 / 77	0 / 1

Vitor Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17