Middleweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Miranda won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1367

Elo1490

Vitor MirandavsMarcelo GuimaraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vitor Miranda won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:09

Model Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Vitor Miranda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Miranda at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vitor Miranda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vitor Miranda is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Marcelo Guimaraes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Vitor Miranda has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Vitor Miranda has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Miranda

Red Corner

Marcelo Guimaraes

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1367

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor MirandaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Collier · Dec 14

KOvs Clint Hester · Aug 15

vs Chris Camozzi · May 16

vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 17

vs Abu Azaitar · Jul 18

latest

Marcelo Guimaraes

oldest →

vs Dan Stittgen · Jul 12

KOvs Hyun Gyu Lim · Mar 13

vs Andy Enz · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor MirandaMetricMarcelo Guimaraes

2.98

Strikes / min

4.67

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

58%

Strike defense

62%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

1.99

50%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor MirandaMarcelo Guimaraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Miranda(7 fights)Marcelo Guimaraes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.9|Blue +123.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -399.0|Blue +399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor MirandaTargetMarcelo Guimaraes

By target zone

66% acc · 83%

Head

27% acc · 26%

60% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 17%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

93% acc · 57%

By position

47% acc · 46%

Distance

51% acc · 83%

96% acc · 54%

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Miranda rounds

even

Marcelo Guimaraes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 2Vitor Miranda edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 71

Sig Strikes

23 / 44

66.5%

Sig Str %

50%

61 / 87

Total Strikes

31 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcelo Guimaraes	17 / 31	23 / 38	1 / 4
1	Vitor Miranda	27 / 45	42 / 61	0 / 0
2	Marcelo Guimaraes	6 / 13	8 / 15	0 / 1
2	Vitor Miranda	19 / 26	19 / 26	0 / 0

Vitor Miranda

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Marcelo Guimaraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4