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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Vitor Miranda won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1367
Elo1474
Jake Collier

Vitor MirandavsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Miranda won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins(67.2%)

Actual result: Vitor Miranda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Miranda at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vitor Miranda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jake Collier has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Miranda
Red Corner
VS
Jake Collier
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
1367
Elo
1474
47
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor MirandaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Clint Hester · Aug 15
W
KOvs Marcelo Guimaraes · Mar 16
L
vs Chris Camozzi · May 16
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 17
L
vs Abu Azaitar · Jul 18
latest
Jake CollierL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22
L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22
L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23
L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor MirandaMetricJake Collier
2.98
Strikes / min
5.80
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
5.08
58%
Strike defense
50%
0.95
TDs / 15 min
0.71
50%
Takedown defense
67%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1500Strikes21.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Vitor MirandaJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vitor Miranda(7 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -107.2|Blue +107.2
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor MirandaTargetJake Collier

By target zone

6
50% acc · 43%
Head
11
37% acc · 73%
4
80% acc · 29%
Body
4
80% acc · 27%
4
100% acc · 29%
Leg
0

By position

12
63% acc · 86%
Distance
13
39% acc · 87%
2
100% acc · 14%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 13%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Vitor Miranda rounds
0
even
1
Jake Collier rounds
Round 1Jake Collier edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:01
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:04Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 21
Sig Strikes
15 / 35
66%
Sig Str %
42%
19 / 26
Total Strikes
22 / 44
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
66%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
3:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Collier15 / 3522 / 442 / 31
1Vitor Miranda14 / 2119 / 260 / 00

Vitor Miranda

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights14