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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Antonio Carlos Junior won · U-DEC R3
Elo1367
Elo1395

Vitor MirandavsAntonio Carlos JuniorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Antonio Carlos Junior won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Antonio Carlos Junior wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Miranda at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vitor Miranda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Miranda
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Carlos Junior
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1367
Elo
1395
47
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor MirandaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Clint Hester · Aug 15
W
KOvs Marcelo Guimaraes · Mar 16
L
vs Chris Camozzi · May 16
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 17
L
vs Abu Azaitar · Jul 18
latest
Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17
W
SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18
L
vs Ian Heinisch · May 19
L
vs Uriah Hall · Sep 19
L
vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor MirandaMetricAntonio Carlos Junior
2.98
Strikes / min
1.95
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
58%
Strike defense
52%
0.95
TDs / 15 min
3.42
50%
Takedown defense
53%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.19
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vitor Miranda(7 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -28.2|Blue +28.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor MirandaTargetAntonio Carlos Junior

By target zone

4
27% acc · 19%
Head
12
20% acc · 63%
4
36% acc · 19%
Body
3
75% acc · 16%
13
62% acc · 62%
Leg
4
80% acc · 21%

By position

15
37% acc · 71%
Distance
9
19% acc · 47%
0
Clinch
5
71% acc · 26%
6
100% acc · 29%
Ground
5
33% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vitor Miranda rounds
0
even
2
Antonio Carlos Junior rounds
Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:02
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:40Control
Round 2Vitor Miranda edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:58
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:20Control
Round 3Antonio Carlos Junior edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:29Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
21 / 47
Sig Strikes
19 / 70
50%
Sig Str %
24.3%
103 / 136
Total Strikes
33 / 85
0 / 1
TDs
5 / 6
0%
TD %
83.3%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
2:00
Ctrl Time
8:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Antonio Carlos Junior13 / 4216 / 452 / 20
1Vitor Miranda8 / 2714 / 330 / 00
2Antonio Carlos Junior3 / 158 / 201 / 21
2Vitor Miranda10 / 1442 / 510 / 00
3Antonio Carlos Junior3 / 139 / 202 / 20
3Vitor Miranda3 / 647 / 520 / 10

Vitor Miranda

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7

Antonio Carlos Junior

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11