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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Abu Azaitar won · U-DEC R3
Elo1367
Elo1480

Vitor MirandavsAbu AzaitarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Abu Azaitar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Abu Azaitar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Miranda at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vitor Miranda is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Abu Azaitar has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Miranda
Red Corner
VS
Abu Azaitar
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1367
Elo
1480
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor MirandaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jake Collier · Dec 14
W
KOvs Clint Hester · Aug 15
W
KOvs Marcelo Guimaraes · Mar 16
L
vs Chris Camozzi · May 16
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 17
latest
Abu AzaitarL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 21
L
vs Sedriques Dumas · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor MirandaMetricAbu Azaitar
2.98
Strikes / min
4.38
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
4.32
58%
Strike defense
51%
0.95
TDs / 15 min
1.00
50%
Takedown defense
42%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1500Strikes36.0 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Vitor MirandaAbu Azaitar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vitor Miranda(7 fights)Abu Azaitar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -113.9|Blue +113.9
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -48.4|Blue +48.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor MirandaTargetAbu Azaitar

By target zone

10
31% acc · 53%
Head
33
30% acc · 69%
3
50% acc · 16%
Body
11
73% acc · 23%
6
86% acc · 32%
Leg
4
100% acc · 8%

By position

12
35% acc · 63%
Distance
30
29% acc · 63%
3
100% acc · 16%
Clinch
5
63% acc · 10%
4
50% acc · 21%
Ground
13
81% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Vitor Miranda rounds
1
even
2
Abu Azaitar rounds
Round 1Abu Azaitar edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:31
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control1:08
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:21Control
Round 3Abu Azaitar edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control2:17
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:52Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 45
Sig Strikes
48 / 128
39.3%
Sig Str %
44.3%
63 / 91
Total Strikes
135 / 226
3 / 4
TDs
1 / 1
83%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
1
4:56
Ctrl Time
3:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Abu Azaitar25 / 6648 / 910 / 00
1Vitor Miranda7 / 2019 / 321 / 10
2Abu Azaitar15 / 5037 / 760 / 00
2Vitor Miranda10 / 1816 / 252 / 30
3Abu Azaitar8 / 1250 / 591 / 10
3Vitor Miranda2 / 728 / 340 / 01

Vitor Miranda

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7

Abu Azaitar

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3