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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Vitor Belfort won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1363

Vitor BelfortvsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Belfort won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Vitor Belfort wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +158 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vitor Belfort enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Nate Marquardt has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+158

(39%)

1491

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor BelfortL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · May 15

KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15

KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16

KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18

latest

Nate MarquardtL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricNate Marquardt

1.59

Strikes / min

2.71

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

50%

Strike defense

55%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.87

53%

Takedown defense

70%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor BelfortNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.5|Blue -128.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

43% acc · 81%

Head

28% acc · 37%

75% acc · 16%

Body

89% acc · 28%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

95% acc · 35%

By position

43% acc · 68%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

58% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Belfort rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Nate Marquardt edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 78

Sig Strikes

57 / 113

43%

Sig Str %

49.7%

38 / 80

Total Strikes

68 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Marquardt	11 / 23	21 / 33	1 / 1
1	Vitor Belfort	3 / 10	3 / 11	0 / 0
2	Nate Marquardt	26 / 50	26 / 50	0 / 0
2	Vitor Belfort	16 / 33	16 / 33	0 / 0
3	Nate Marquardt	20 / 40	21 / 41	0 / 1
3	Vitor Belfort	18 / 35	19 / 36	0 / 0

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14