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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Lyoto Machida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Vitor BelfortvsLyoto MachidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Lyoto Machida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lyoto Machida at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Lyoto Machida has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lyoto Machida has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort

Red Corner

Lyoto Machida

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor Belfort

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · May 15

KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15

KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16

KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16

vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17

latest

Lyoto Machida

oldest →

KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14

SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15

KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15

KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17

vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricLyoto Machida

1.59

Strikes / min

2.59

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.57

50%

Strike defense

61%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.21

53%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap+1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor BelfortLyoto Machida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetLyoto Machida

By target zone

18% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 18%

0% acc

Body

64% acc · 64%

Leg

67% acc · 18%

By position

17% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Belfort rounds

even

Lyoto Machida rounds

Round 1Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lyoto Machida edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 12

Sig Strikes

11 / 22

22%

Sig Str %

39%

2 / 12

Total Strikes

11 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lyoto Machida	10 / 16	10 / 16	0 / 0
1	Vitor Belfort	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 0
2	Lyoto Machida	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0
2	Vitor Belfort	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16