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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Vitor Belfort won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort
Elo1433
Luke Rockhold

Vitor BelfortvsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Belfort won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:32

Model Prediction: Vitor Belfort wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Vitor Belfort wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vitor Belfort at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Vitor Belfort is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Luke Rockhold has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Luke Rockhold is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort
Red Corner
VS
Luke Rockhold
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1491
Elo
1433
49
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor Belfort
oldest →
W
KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15
L
KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest
Luke RockholdL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16
W
KOvs David Branch · Sep 17
L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18
L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19
L
vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricLuke Rockhold
1.59
Strikes / min
4.10
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
50%
Strike defense
53%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
0.70
53%
Takedown defense
65%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1500Strikes10.7 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.47 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Vitor BelfortLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +57.7|Blue -57.7
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

8
44% acc · 89%
Head
2
25% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 11%
Leg
4
80% acc · 67%

By position

4
29% acc · 44%
Distance
6
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 56%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vitor Belfort rounds
0
even
0
Luke Rockhold rounds
Round 1Vitor Belfort edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
9 / 20
Sig Strikes
6 / 15
45%
Sig Str %
40%
10 / 21
Total Strikes
6 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:13
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Luke Rockhold6 / 156 / 150 / 10
1Vitor Belfort9 / 2010 / 210 / 00

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11