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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1491

Vitor BelfortvsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:43

Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gegard Mousasi at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Gegard Mousasi has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort

Red Corner

Gegard Mousasi

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor Belfort

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · May 15

KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15

KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16

vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17

KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18

latest

Gegard MousasiW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricGegard Mousasi

1.59

Strikes / min

3.75

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.21

50%

Strike defense

68%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

1.59

53%

Takedown defense

59%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 3.78 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vitor BelfortGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

24% acc · 63%

Head

43% acc · 72%

60% acc · 38%

Body

57% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

26% acc · 75%

Distance

51% acc · 51%

67% acc · 25%

Clinch

47% acc · 25%

Ground

52% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vitor Belfort rounds

even

Gegard Mousasi rounds

Round 1Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 26

Sig Strikes

57 / 114

38.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

9 / 27

Total Strikes

65 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gegard Mousasi	19 / 45	22 / 49	0 / 2
1	Vitor Belfort	6 / 22	7 / 23	0 / 0
2	Gegard Mousasi	38 / 69	43 / 75	1 / 2
2	Vitor Belfort	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12