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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Vitor Belfort won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort
Elo1491
Anthony Johnson

Vitor BelfortvsAnthony JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Vitor Belfort won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:49

Model Prediction: Anthony Johnson wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Vitor Belfort wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Johnson at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Anthony Johnson is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Vitor Belfort has lost 83% of fights by KO.
  • Anthony Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Anthony Johnson has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).
  • Anthony Johnson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vitor Belfort
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Johnson
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1491
Elo
1491
49
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vitor Belfort
oldest →
W
KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15
L
KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest
Anthony Johnson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 15
W
KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 15
W
KOvs Ryan Bader · Jan 16
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Aug 16
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · Apr 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vitor BelfortMetricAnthony Johnson
1.59
Strikes / min
3.25
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
1.83
50%
Strike defense
60%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
2.43
53%
Takedown defense
77%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1536Strikes9.5 vs 20.9Takedowns0.4 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.43 vs 0.50Form0.2 vs 1.0
Vitor BelfortAnthony Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vitor Belfort(10 fights)Anthony Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vitor BelfortTargetAnthony Johnson

By target zone

14
50% acc · 100%
Head
3
21% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
20% acc · 14%
Distance
3
27% acc · 75%
1
17% acc · 7%
Clinch
0
0% acc
11
85% acc · 79%
Ground
1
25% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vitor Belfort rounds
0
even
0
Anthony Johnson rounds
Round 1Vitor Belfort edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:12
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 29
Sig Strikes
4 / 16
48%
Sig Str %
25%
37 / 54
Total Strikes
14 / 28
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 8
—
TD %
25%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:12
Ctrl Time
2:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Johnson4 / 1614 / 282 / 80
1Vitor Belfort14 / 2937 / 540 / 01

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13

Anthony Johnson

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights11