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Strawweight

3 Rounds

Virna Jandiroba won · Decision R3

Elo1529

Elo1492

Virna JandirobavsTabatha RicciUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Virna Jandiroba won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Virna Jandiroba

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Virna Jandiroba at -120 American odds · hypothetical only

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Style matchupVirna Jandiroba: WrestlervsTabatha Ricci: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tabatha Ricci wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Virna Jandiroba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Virna Jandiroba

Red Corner

Tabatha Ricci

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1529

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'1"

162.56 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Virna Jandiroba

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · May 23

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 24

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 25

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 25

latest

Tabatha Ricci

oldest →

vs Tecia Pennington · May 24

vs Angela Hill · Aug 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 24

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 25

DECvs Fatima Kline · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Virna JandirobaMetricTabatha Ricci

2.27

Strikes / min

4.00

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

4.83

55%

Strike defense

57%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

2.51

72%

Takedown defense

65%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.83

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Virna JandirobaTabatha Ricci

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Virna Jandiroba(10 fights)Tabatha Ricci(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.8|Blue -36.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Virna JandirobaTargetTabatha Ricci

By target zone

34% acc · 73%

Head

40% acc · 73%

88% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 14%

Leg

71% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 92%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Virna Jandiroba rounds

even

Tabatha Ricci rounds

Round 1Virna Jandiroba edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control3:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Virna Jandiroba edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:33

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Tabatha Ricci edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:27

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 64

Sig Strikes

37 / 82

40.7%

Sig Str %

46%

122 / 174

Total Strikes

89 / 144

6 / 12

TDs

1 / 2

58.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:00

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tabatha Ricci	7 / 13	9 / 16	0 / 1
1	Virna Jandiroba	3 / 10	26 / 34	3 / 6
2	Tabatha Ricci	6 / 14	50 / 62	0 / 0
2	Virna Jandiroba	9 / 16	61 / 79	2 / 2
3	Tabatha Ricci	24 / 55	30 / 66	1 / 1
3	Virna Jandiroba	14 / 38	35 / 61	1 / 4

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Virna Jandiroba

Odds

-120

Market-implied probability

Virna Jandiroba 52%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Virna Jandiroba (model pick · research)$183

Tabatha Ricci$195

52% market-implied · model 61% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Virna Jandiroba

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Tabatha Ricci

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights12