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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Anthony Perosh won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Vinny Magalhaes
Elo1356

Vinny MagalhaesvsAnthony PeroshUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Anthony Perosh won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:14

Model Prediction: Vinny Magalhaes wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Anthony Perosh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinny Magalhaes at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vinny Magalhaes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Vinny Magalhaes has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinny Magalhaes
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Perosh
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
1352
Elo
1356
42
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinny Magalhaes
oldest →
W
SUBvs Igor Pokrajac · Sep 12
L
vs Phil Davis · Apr 13
latest
Anthony PeroshL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ryan Jimmo · Jul 12
L
vs Ryan Bader · Dec 13
W
SUBvs Guto Inocente · Nov 14
L
KOvs Sean O'Connell · May 15
L
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinny MagalhaesMetricAnthony Perosh
2.14
Strikes / min
2.27
3.97
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
68%
Strike defense
53%
1.55
TDs / 15 min
2.03
66%
Takedown defense
33%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.83evenly matched on net striking-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1504 vs 1528Strikes20.5 vs 16.3Takedowns1.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.57Form-0.3 vs 0.2
Vinny MagalhaesAnthony Perosh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Vinny Magalhaes(3 fights)Anthony Perosh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.3|Blue +3.3
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -280.0|Blue +280.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinny MagalhaesTargetAnthony Perosh

By target zone

1
100% acc · 100%
Head
8
62% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
100% acc · 100%
Distance
1
100% acc · 13%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
7
58% acc · 88%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Vinny Magalhaes rounds
0
even
1
Anthony Perosh rounds
Round 1Anthony Perosh edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 1
Sig Strikes
8 / 13
100%
Sig Str %
61%
1 / 1
Total Strikes
8 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Anthony Perosh8 / 138 / 130 / 00
1Vinny Magalhaes1 / 11 / 10 / 00

Vinny Magalhaes

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3

Anthony Perosh

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9