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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Paul Craig won · SUB R1

Elo1394

Elo1473

Vinicius MoreiravsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Paul Craig won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:19

Style matchupVinicius Moreira: Submission grapplervsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Vinicius Moreira wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Paul Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinicius Moreira at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinicius Moreira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Paul Craig has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinicius Moreira

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1394

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinicius MoreiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Jan 19

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jun 19

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Jan 21

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinicius MoreiraMetricPaul Craig

3.15

Strikes / min

2.50

5.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

43%

Strike defense

43%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

1.43

Takedown defense

35%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.92Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vinicius MoreiraPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinicius Moreira(4 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.6|Blue +78.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinicius MoreiraTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

0% acc

Head

64% acc · 89%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

61% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinicius Moreira rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Paul Craig edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:51

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

18 / 27

33%

Sig Str %

66%

1 / 3

Total Strikes

33 / 43

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	18 / 27	33 / 43	1 / 1	1
1	Vinicius Moreira	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0

Vinicius Moreira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20