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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miles Johns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1454

Elo1479

Vince MoralesvsMiles JohnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Miles Johns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVince Morales: Well-roundedvsMiles Johns: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Miles Johns wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Miles Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Miles Johns at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Vince Morales

Red Corner

Miles Johns

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1454

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Miles JohnsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vince MoralesMetricMiles Johns

3.54

Strikes / min

3.36

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

54%

Strike defense

65%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.22

63%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vince MoralesMiles Johns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vince Morales(10 fights)Miles Johns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.1|Blue +25.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vince MoralesTargetMiles Johns

By target zone

25% acc · 72%

Head

30% acc · 74%

60% acc · 23%

Body

80% acc · 11%

50% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

28% acc · 92%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vince Morales rounds

even

Miles Johns rounds

Round 1Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 131

Sig Strikes

38 / 103

28.3%

Sig Str %

37%

47 / 139

Total Strikes

45 / 110

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 12

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miles Johns	10 / 26	10 / 26	0 / 1
1	Vince Morales	8 / 32	8 / 32	0 / 0
2	Miles Johns	13 / 32	13 / 32	1 / 3
2	Vince Morales	11 / 43	13 / 45	0 / 0
3	Miles Johns	15 / 45	22 / 52	0 / 8
3	Vince Morales	20 / 56	26 / 62	0 / 0

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11