Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Elijah Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1454

Elo1549

Vince MoralesvsElijah SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elijah Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVince Morales: Well-roundedvsElijah Smith: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Elijah Smith wins(82.6%)

Actual result: Elijah Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elijah Smith at -122 American odds

+$82 profit

$182 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Vince Morales

Red Corner

Elijah Smith

Blue Corner

+104

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1454

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Elijah SmithW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Aug 25

SUBvs SuYoung You · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vince MoralesMetricElijah Smith

3.54

Strikes / min

4.18

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

54%

Strike defense

46%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.98

63%

Takedown defense

53%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vince MoralesElijah Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vince Morales(10 fights)Elijah Smith(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -94.3|Blue +94.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vince MoralesTargetElijah Smith

By target zone

41% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 73%

80% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 5%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

69% acc · 23%

By position

44% acc · 90%

Distance

39% acc · 93%

80% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vince Morales rounds

even

Elijah Smith rounds

Round 1Elijah Smith edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:02

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 3Elijah Smith edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:05

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 86

Sig Strikes

40 / 97

56%

Sig Str %

34.7%

42 / 90

Total Strikes

52 / 110

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 4

33%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

2:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elijah Smith	19 / 43	19 / 43	1 / 1	0
1	Vince Morales	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Elijah Smith	1 / 5	7 / 12	1 / 1	1
2	Vince Morales	4 / 5	6 / 8	2 / 3	2
3	Elijah Smith	20 / 49	26 / 55	1 / 2	0
3	Vince Morales	17 / 41	17 / 42	0 / 1	1

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Elijah Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3