Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vince Morales won · U-DEC R3

Elo1454

Elo1405

Vince MoralesvsDrako RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Vince Morales won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVince Morales: Well-roundedvsDrako Rodriguez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Drako Rodriguez wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Vince Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drako Rodriguez at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Vince Morales

Red Corner

Drako Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1454

Elo

1405

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Drako Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vince MoralesMetricDrako Rodriguez

3.54

Strikes / min

3.37

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

2.93

63%

Takedown defense

75%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vince MoralesDrako Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vince Morales(10 fights)Drako Rodriguez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vince MoralesTargetDrako Rodriguez

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

33% acc · 82%

65% acc · 34%

Body

67% acc · 4%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

38% acc · 91%

Distance

34% acc · 89%

58% acc · 9%

Clinch

71% acc · 9%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vince Morales rounds

even

Drako Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:14

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Drako Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:15

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:11

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 196

Sig Strikes

55 / 151

39.7%

Sig Str %

36%

84 / 204

Total Strikes

60 / 156

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 5

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drako Rodriguez	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0
1	Vince Morales	27 / 54	30 / 57	0 / 1
2	Drako Rodriguez	17 / 40	19 / 42	3 / 3
2	Vince Morales	18 / 48	22 / 52	1 / 1
3	Drako Rodriguez	24 / 62	27 / 65	0 / 2
3	Vince Morales	31 / 94	32 / 95	0 / 2

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Drako Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2