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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Ronnie Lawrence won · KO/TKO
Elo1396
Vince Cachero
Elo1496

Vince CacherovsRonnie LawrenceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ronnie Lawrence won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Ronnie Lawrence wins(85.1%)

Actual result: Ronnie Lawrence wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronnie Lawrence at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ronnie Lawrence is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Vince Cachero has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Ronnie Lawrence has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ronnie Lawrence (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Vince Cachero
Red Corner
VS
Ronnie Lawrence
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1396
Elo
1496
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vince Cachero
oldest →
L
vs Jamall Emmers · Aug 20
latest
Ronnie Lawrence
oldest →
W
vs Mana Martinez · Feb 22
L
vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Jul 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vince CacheroMetricRonnie Lawrence
3.29
Strikes / min
2.78
6.51
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
43%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
6.75
18%
Takedown defense
45%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.22Δ 4.25 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1500Strikes3.3 vs 3.8Takedowns0.0 vs 10.9Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.50Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Vince CacheroRonnie Lawrence

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Vince Cachero(2 fights)Ronnie Lawrence(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -99.3|Blue +99.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vince CacheroTargetRonnie Lawrence

By target zone

8
22% acc · 53%
Head
53
60% acc · 69%
3
50% acc · 20%
Body
14
74% acc · 18%
4
100% acc · 27%
Leg
10
77% acc · 13%

By position

10
26% acc · 67%
Distance
22
48% acc · 29%
5
71% acc · 33%
Clinch
5
71% acc · 6%
0
0% acc
Ground
50
74% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Vince Cachero rounds
0
even
3
Ronnie Lawrence rounds
Round 1Ronnie Lawrence edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:09
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:08Control
Round 2Ronnie Lawrence edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:27
10Sig. strikes
5Takedowns
3:14Control
Round 3Ronnie Lawrence edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
50Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 46
Sig Strikes
77 / 121
22%
Sig Str %
58.3%
23 / 55
Total Strikes
102 / 151
0 / 2
TDs
8 / 9
0%
TD %
88.7%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:36
Ctrl Time
7:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ronnie Lawrence17 / 3418 / 372 / 30
1Vince Cachero10 / 2411 / 260 / 10
2Ronnie Lawrence10 / 1912 / 245 / 50
2Vince Cachero5 / 2010 / 250 / 11
3Ronnie Lawrence50 / 6872 / 901 / 10
3Vince Cachero0 / 22 / 40 / 00

Vince Cachero

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2

Ronnie Lawrence

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights3