← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rustam Khabilov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1488

Elo1492

Vinc PichelvsRustam KhabilovUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:15

Style matchupVinc Pichel: WrestlervsRustam Khabilov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at +260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rustam Khabilov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rustam Khabilov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinc Pichel

Red Corner

Rustam Khabilov

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1488

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Rustam Khabilov

oldest →

vs Jason Saggo · Dec 16

vs Desmond Green · Sep 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18

vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19

vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinc PichelMetricRustam Khabilov

3.78

Strikes / min

1.98

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

54%

Strike defense

65%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

3.95

31%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinc Pichel(10 fights)Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.1|Blue +4.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinc PichelTargetRustam Khabilov

By target zone

0% acc

Head

67% acc · 92%

Body

100% acc · 8%

0% acc

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

Ground

85% acc · 85%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinc Pichel rounds

even

Rustam Khabilov rounds

Round 1Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:02

13Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

1:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 4

Sig Strikes

13 / 19

Sig Str %

68%

1 / 5

Total Strikes

19 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 6

—

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rustam Khabilov	13 / 19	19 / 25	5 / 6	0
1	Vinc Pichel	0 / 4	1 / 5	0 / 0	0

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13