Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mark Madsen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1486

Vinc PichelvsMark MadsenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mark Madsen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVinc Pichel: WrestlervsMark Madsen: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Mark Madsen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Madsen has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinc Pichel

Red Corner

Mark Madsen

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1488

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinc PichelL2 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Mark MadsenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20

vs Clay Guida · Aug 21

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22

KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinc PichelMetricMark Madsen

3.78

Strikes / min

3.56

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

54%

Strike defense

52%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

2.86

31%

Takedown defense

62%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vinc PichelMark Madsen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinc Pichel(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinc PichelTargetMark Madsen

By target zone

41% acc · 47%

Head

36% acc · 69%

70% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 3%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 28%

By position

50% acc · 78%

Distance

41% acc · 82%

91% acc · 15%

Clinch

60% acc · 8%

83% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinc Pichel rounds

even

Mark Madsen rounds

Round 1Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:29

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:16

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 123

Sig Strikes

39 / 87

56.3%

Sig Str %

46%

88 / 144

Total Strikes

57 / 110

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

5:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Madsen	18 / 38	18 / 38	1 / 1
1	Vinc Pichel	24 / 50	24 / 50	0 / 0
2	Mark Madsen	13 / 34	15 / 37	1 / 1
2	Vinc Pichel	22 / 41	25 / 44	1 / 1
3	Mark Madsen	8 / 15	24 / 35	1 / 1
3	Vinc Pichel	22 / 32	39 / 50	0 / 1

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6