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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1507

Vinc PichelvsJoaquim SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVinc Pichel: WrestlervsJoaquim Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joaquim Silva has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinc Pichel

Red Corner

Joaquim Silva

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1488

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Clay Guida · Dec 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinc PichelMetricJoaquim Silva

3.78

Strikes / min

3.43

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

54%

Strike defense

53%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

0.34

31%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vinc PichelJoaquim Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinc Pichel(10 fights)Joaquim Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinc PichelTargetJoaquim Silva

By target zone

18% acc · 40%

Head

38% acc · 67%

71% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 22%

70% acc · 35%

Leg

83% acc · 11%

By position

29% acc · 83%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

83% acc · 17%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinc Pichel rounds

even

Joaquim Silva rounds

Round 1Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:15

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 186

Sig Strikes

45 / 100

33.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

62 / 188

Total Strikes

54 / 109

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquim Silva	6 / 16	13 / 23	0 / 0
1	Vinc Pichel	13 / 38	14 / 39	0 / 1
2	Joaquim Silva	11 / 30	12 / 31	0 / 0
2	Vinc Pichel	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 1
3	Joaquim Silva	28 / 54	29 / 55	0 / 0
3	Vinc Pichel	28 / 100	29 / 101	1 / 2

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12