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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1354

Vinc PichelvsGarett WhiteleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Garett Whiteley wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garett Whiteley at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Vinc Pichel

Red Corner

Garett Whiteley

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1488

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Garett WhiteleyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Patrick · Oct 13

vs David Michaud · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinc PichelMetricGarett Whiteley

3.78

Strikes / min

3.72

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

54%

Strike defense

46%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

0.00

31%

Takedown defense

27%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vinc PichelGarett Whiteley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinc Pichel(10 fights)Garett Whiteley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.9|Blue -133.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +298.0|Blue -298.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinc PichelTargetGarett Whiteley

By target zone

36% acc · 45%

Head

42% acc · 36%

100% acc · 16%

Body

79% acc · 43%

94% acc · 39%

Leg

90% acc · 20%

By position

31% acc · 27%

Distance

39% acc · 30%

100% acc · 34%

Clinch

90% acc · 41%

63% acc · 39%

Ground

68% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinc Pichel rounds

even

Garett Whiteley rounds

Round 1Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control2:45

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control4:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control4:04

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 81

Sig Strikes

44 / 72

54.7%

Sig Str %

63.7%

83 / 123

Total Strikes

56 / 86

8 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

73.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:55

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Garett Whiteley	22 / 40	27 / 46	0 / 0	1
1	Vinc Pichel	12 / 21	22 / 31	4 / 5	0
2	Garett Whiteley	11 / 16	15 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Vinc Pichel	16 / 33	37 / 55	2 / 2	0
3	Garett Whiteley	11 / 16	14 / 20	0 / 0	1
3	Vinc Pichel	16 / 27	24 / 37	2 / 5	1

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Garett Whiteley

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3