← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1478

Vinc PichelvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Saturday, August 21, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVinc Pichel: WrestlervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vinc Pichel

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1488

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vinc PichelMetricAustin Hubbard

3.78

Strikes / min

3.97

3.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

54%

Strike defense

55%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

1.63

31%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vinc PichelAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vinc Pichel(10 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.2|Blue -10.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vinc PichelTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

26% acc · 39%

Head

26% acc · 52%

70% acc · 23%

Body

55% acc · 30%

93% acc · 38%

Leg

91% acc · 18%

By position

41% acc · 83%

Distance

35% acc · 91%

83% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vinc Pichel rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:13

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:08

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:08

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 160

Sig Strikes

56 / 152

44.7%

Sig Str %

36%

96 / 187

Total Strikes

66 / 171

0 / 4

TDs

4 / 7

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

2:29

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Hubbard	22 / 58	24 / 61	0 / 0
1	Vinc Pichel	21 / 55	27 / 61	0 / 1
2	Austin Hubbard	19 / 52	24 / 58	2 / 3
2	Vinc Pichel	27 / 63	34 / 70	0 / 2
3	Austin Hubbard	15 / 42	18 / 52	2 / 4
3	Vinc Pichel	23 / 42	35 / 56	0 / 1

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12