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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1359

Elo1495

Viktor PestavsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:53

Style matchupViktor Pesta: WrestlervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Viktor Pesta has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Viktor Pesta

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1359

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Viktor PestaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ruslan Magomedov · May 14

vs Konstantin Erokhin · Jan 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Oct 15

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jan 17

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Viktor PestaMetricMarcin Tybura

1.58

Strikes / min

3.56

2.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

56%

Strike defense

55%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

1.30

100%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Viktor PestaMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Viktor Pesta(5 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.4|Blue +136.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +190.0|Blue -190.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Viktor PestaTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

5% acc · 67%

Head

20% acc · 73%

100% acc · 33%

Body

40% acc · 13%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

7% acc · 100%

Distance

24% acc · 93%

0% acc

Clinch

33% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Viktor Pesta rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:29

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 42

Sig Strikes

15 / 62

Sig Str %

22.5%

4 / 43

Total Strikes

20 / 67

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Tybura	13 / 52	18 / 57	0 / 0
1	Viktor Pesta	3 / 36	4 / 37	0 / 2
2	Marcin Tybura	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 0
2	Viktor Pesta	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0

Viktor Pesta

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24