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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brendan O'Reilly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1359

Vik GrujicvsBrendan O'ReillyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Brendan O'Reilly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brendan O'Reilly wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Brendan O'Reilly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan O'Reilly at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan O'Reilly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vik Grujic has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vik Grujic

Red Corner

Brendan O'Reilly

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vik Grujic

oldest →

vs Nordine Taleb · Apr 14

KOvs Chris Indich · Jun 14

KOvs Chris Clements · Nov 14

latest

Brendan O'ReillyL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Aug 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Mar 16

vs Dong Hyun Ma · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vik GrujicMetricBrendan O'Reilly

2.24

Strikes / min

1.90

3.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

41%

Strike defense

39%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.22

26%

Takedown defense

36%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.15evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vik GrujicBrendan O'Reilly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vik Grujic(4 fights)Brendan O'Reilly(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -76.0|Blue +76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vik GrujicTargetBrendan O'Reilly

By target zone

47% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 55%

100% acc · 25%

Body

68% acc · 36%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

45% acc · 31%

Distance

37% acc · 26%

62% acc · 69%

Clinch

53% acc · 64%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vik Grujic rounds

even

Brendan O'Reilly rounds

Round 1Brendan O'Reilly edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:56

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:23Control

Round 2Vik Grujic edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control2:50

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Brendan O'Reilly edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:14

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 106

Sig Strikes

42 / 85

55.7%

Sig Str %

57.7%

103 / 156

Total Strikes

83 / 127

1 / 3

TDs

6 / 10

25%

TD %

70%

Sub Att

Rev

5:00

Ctrl Time

7:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan O'Reilly	10 / 15	20 / 25	3 / 5	1
1	Vik Grujic	7 / 14	12 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Brendan O'Reilly	20 / 53	25 / 59	1 / 1	0
2	Vik Grujic	38 / 70	59 / 94	1 / 2	1
3	Brendan O'Reilly	12 / 17	38 / 43	2 / 4	0
3	Vik Grujic	14 / 22	32 / 41	0 / 1	0

Vik Grujic

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Brendan O'Reilly

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4