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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Gatto won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1489

Elo1492

Victoria LeonardovsMelissa GattoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Melissa Gatto won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupVictoria Leonardo: Well-roundedvsMelissa Gatto: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Melissa Gatto wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Melissa Gatto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melissa Gatto at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melissa Gatto is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Victoria Leonardo has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Melissa Gatto has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Victoria Leonardo

Red Corner

Melissa Gatto

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1489

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victoria LeonardoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Manon Fiorot · Jan 21

vs Mandy Bohm · Jul 22

KOvs Natalia Silva · May 23

KOvs Wang Cong · Aug 24

latest

Melissa Gatto

oldest →

KOvs Sijara Eubanks · Dec 21

vs Tracy Cortez · May 22

vs Ariane da Silva · Jul 23

KOvs Tamires Vidal · May 24

DECvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victoria LeonardoMetricMelissa Gatto

3.22

Strikes / min

3.47

4.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

47%

Strike defense

54%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

1.77

71%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.59Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victoria LeonardoMelissa Gatto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victoria Leonardo(5 fights)Melissa Gatto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victoria LeonardoTargetMelissa Gatto

By target zone

24% acc · 33%

Head

51% acc · 60%

76% acc · 30%

Body

63% acc · 17%

100% acc · 37%

Leg

84% acc · 23%

By position

45% acc · 88%

Distance

57% acc · 90%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victoria Leonardo rounds

even

Melissa Gatto rounds

Round 1Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:59

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 2Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:28

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 91

Sig Strikes

70 / 121

47%

Sig Str %

59%

59 / 110

Total Strikes

96 / 148

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

1:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melissa Gatto	13 / 21	36 / 45	1 / 4
1	Victoria Leonardo	13 / 27	27 / 44	0 / 1
2	Melissa Gatto	57 / 100	60 / 103	0 / 1
2	Victoria Leonardo	30 / 64	32 / 66	0 / 2

Victoria Leonardo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Melissa Gatto

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6