Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tom Nolan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1562

Victor MartinezvsTom NolanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tom Nolan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:50

Style matchupVictor Martinez: Pressure fightervsTom Nolan: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Martinez

Red Corner

Tom Nolan

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1491

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor Martinez

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Feb 23

latest

Tom NolanW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24

vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25

SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25

DECvs Fares Ziam · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor MartinezMetricTom Nolan

7.94

Strikes / min

5.87

7.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.73

53%

Strike defense

48%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.74

80%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.28evenly matched on net striking+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor MartinezTom Nolan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Martinez(2 fights)Tom Nolan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.0|Blue +71.0

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor MartinezTargetTom Nolan

By target zone

50% acc · 33%

Head

37% acc · 42%

78% acc · 39%

Body

65% acc · 39%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

70% acc · 89%

Distance

50% acc · 88%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 6%

Ground

80% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Martinez rounds

even

Tom Nolan rounds

Round 1Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:48

Knockdowns1

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 26

Sig Strikes

33 / 64

69%

Sig Str %

51%

20 / 29

Total Strikes

41 / 72

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Nolan	33 / 64	41 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Victor Martinez	18 / 26	20 / 29	0 / 1	0

Victor Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6