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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Victor Henry won · S-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1455

Victor HenryvsTony GravelyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Victor Henry won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVictor Henry: Pressure fightervsTony Gravely: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Victor Henry wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Victor Henry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Henry at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Henry has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Henry (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Henry

Red Corner

Tony Gravely

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1508

Elo

1455

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor Henry

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 22

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 22

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 24

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Nov 24

vs Pedro Falcao · Apr 25

latest

Tony Gravely

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Birchak · Apr 21

KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21

vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22

KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22

vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor HenryMetricTony Gravely

7.17

Strikes / min

3.82

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

48%

Strike defense

44%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

5.40

81%

Takedown defense

52%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap-0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor HenryTony Gravely

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Henry(6 fights)Tony Gravely(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.5|Blue -52.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor HenryTargetTony Gravely

By target zone

52% acc · 60%

Head

39% acc · 59%

92% acc · 36%

Body

69% acc · 27%

88% acc · 5%

Leg

92% acc · 15%

By position

102

56% acc · 66%

Distance

41% acc · 69%

84% acc · 30%

Clinch

82% acc · 24%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Henry rounds

even

Tony Gravely rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:01

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 2Victor Henry edged it

Sig. strikes71

Takedowns0

Control0:55

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 3Victor Henry edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:24

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

154 / 244

Sig Strikes

75 / 154

61.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

190 / 281

Total Strikes

90 / 169

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 17

—

TD %

15.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

3:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Gravely	22 / 42	25 / 45	1 / 7	0
1	Victor Henry	29 / 53	41 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Gravely	17 / 37	18 / 38	2 / 6	0
2	Victor Henry	71 / 107	90 / 127	0 / 0	0
3	Tony Gravely	36 / 75	47 / 86	0 / 4	0
3	Victor Henry	54 / 84	59 / 89	0 / 0	2

Victor Henry

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8