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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Victor Henry won · U-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1485

Victor HenryvsPedro FalcaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Victor Henry won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVictor Henry: Pressure fightervsPedro Falcao: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Victor Henry wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Victor Henry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Henry at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Henry has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Henry (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Henry

Red Corner

Pedro Falcao

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1508

Elo

1485

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor Henry

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 22

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 22

vs Tony Gravely · Mar 23

KOvs Rani Yahya · Apr 24

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Nov 24

latest

Pedro Falcao

oldest →

vs Victor Hugo · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor HenryMetricPedro Falcao

7.17

Strikes / min

3.21

5.19

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

48%

Strike defense

50%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

2.73

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor HenryPedro Falcao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Henry(6 fights)Pedro Falcao(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.9|Blue -22.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor HenryTargetPedro Falcao

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

37% acc · 60%

78% acc · 29%

Body

85% acc · 19%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

92% acc · 21%

By position

45% acc · 78%

Distance

48% acc · 96%

64% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

70% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Henry rounds

even

Pedro Falcao rounds

Round 1Victor Henry edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:38

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Pedro Falcao edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:56

24Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Victor Henry edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:36

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 151

Sig Strikes

57 / 117

48.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

139 / 227

Total Strikes

69 / 133

2 / 3

TDs

4 / 13

75%

TD %

26.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:10

Ctrl Time

2:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pedro Falcao	20 / 43	26 / 52	0 / 3
1	Victor Henry	22 / 53	50 / 87	1 / 1
2	Pedro Falcao	24 / 45	28 / 50	3 / 5
2	Victor Henry	23 / 54	38 / 70	0 / 0
3	Pedro Falcao	13 / 29	15 / 31	1 / 5
3	Victor Henry	28 / 44	51 / 70	1 / 2

Victor Henry

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Pedro Falcao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights2