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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Felipe dos Santos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1485

Victor AltamiranovsFelipe dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Felipe dos Santos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Victor Altamirano wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Felipe dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Altamirano at +230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe dos Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Victor Altamirano has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Victor Altamirano has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Altamirano (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Altamirano

Red Corner

Felipe dos Santos

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-285

(74%)

1490

Elo

1485

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor AltamiranoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Feb 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Aug 22

vs Vinicius Salvador · Mar 23

vs Tim Elliott · Jun 23

vs Daniel Barez · Sep 24

latest

Felipe dos SantosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Manel Kape · Sep 23

vs Andre Lima · Sep 24

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor AltamiranoMetricFelipe dos Santos

4.58

Strikes / min

3.75

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

53%

Strike defense

41%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

20%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor AltamiranoFelipe dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Altamirano(6 fights)Felipe dos Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.2|Blue -5.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor AltamiranoTargetFelipe dos Santos

By target zone

21% acc · 18%

Head

36% acc · 65%

74% acc · 57%

Body

50% acc · 22%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

47% acc · 73%

Distance

42% acc · 84%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

45% acc · 14%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Altamirano rounds

even

Felipe dos Santos rounds

Round 1Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns6

Control2:14

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control1:23

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:25

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 74

Sig Strikes

37 / 87

53.3%

Sig Str %

40.7%

52 / 97

Total Strikes

62 / 120

9 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

78.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:02

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe dos Santos	6 / 21	14 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Victor Altamirano	9 / 23	14 / 36	6 / 7	0
2	Felipe dos Santos	14 / 35	25 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Victor Altamirano	13 / 22	17 / 28	2 / 2	0
3	Felipe dos Santos	17 / 31	23 / 40	0 / 0	1
3	Victor Altamirano	18 / 29	21 / 33	1 / 2	0

Victor Altamirano

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Felipe dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4