Flyweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Hernandez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1489

Victor AltamiranovsCarlos HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Saturday, February 26, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Hernandez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVictor Altamirano: WrestlervsCarlos Hernandez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Victor Altamirano wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Carlos Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Victor Altamirano at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Altamirano enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Victor Altamirano (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Victor Altamirano

Red Corner

Carlos Hernandez

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1490

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Victor AltamiranoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Aug 22

vs Vinicius Salvador · Mar 23

vs Tim Elliott · Jun 23

vs Felipe dos Santos · Feb 24

vs Daniel Barez · Sep 24

latest

Carlos Hernandez

oldest →

vs Denys Bondar · Jun 23

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 23

vs Rei Tsuruya · Jun 24

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Nov 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Victor AltamiranoMetricCarlos Hernandez

4.58

Strikes / min

3.83

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

53%

Strike defense

50%

2.88

TDs / 15 min

1.56

63%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Victor AltamiranoCarlos Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Victor Altamirano(6 fights)Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Victor AltamiranoTargetCarlos Hernandez

By target zone

37% acc · 41%

Head

42% acc · 67%

91% acc · 53%

Body

69% acc · 21%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

83% acc · 12%

By position

55% acc · 87%

Distance

45% acc · 73%

83% acc · 13%

Clinch

60% acc · 25%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Victor Altamirano rounds

even

Carlos Hernandez rounds

Round 1Carlos Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:24

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Victor Altamirano edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:03

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 138

Sig Strikes

84 / 172

56.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

92 / 152

Total Strikes

90 / 178

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 9

33.3%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Hernandez	25 / 50	29 / 54	1 / 3
1	Victor Altamirano	19 / 35	24 / 40	0 / 1
2	Carlos Hernandez	26 / 56	27 / 57	1 / 3
2	Victor Altamirano	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 2
3	Carlos Hernandez	33 / 66	34 / 67	0 / 3
3	Victor Altamirano	33 / 55	41 / 64	1 / 1

Victor Altamirano

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7