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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · SUB R1

Elo1504

Elo1489

Vicente LuquevsThemba GorimboUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:52

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsThemba Gorimbo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Themba Gorimbo at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Themba Gorimbo has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Themba Gorimbo

Blue Corner

-650

(87%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1504

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Themba GorimboL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Pete Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24

vs Niko Price · Oct 24

vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25

DECvs Jonathan Micallef · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricThemba Gorimbo

4.80

Strikes / min

2.70

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

4.52

59%

Takedown defense

73%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueThemba Gorimbo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Themba Gorimbo(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.3|Blue -15.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetThemba Gorimbo

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

20% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 60%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Themba Gorimbo rounds

Round 1Themba Gorimbo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:14

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 6

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

33%

Sig Str %

55%

2 / 6

Total Strikes

5 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Themba Gorimbo	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	1

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Themba Gorimbo

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7