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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1504

Elo1498

Vicente LuquevsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Saturday, August 1, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:56

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsRandy Brown: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Randy Brown has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1504

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricRandy Brown

4.80

Strikes / min

4.39

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

51%

Strike defense

53%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.71

59%

Takedown defense

74%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.8|Blue -6.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

38% acc · 52%

Head

34% acc · 57%

83% acc · 8%

Body

72% acc · 21%

93% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

50% acc · 88%

Distance

43% acc · 87%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

63% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:42

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 122

Sig Strikes

61 / 133

52.5%

Sig Str %

45.5%

76 / 134

Total Strikes

66 / 138

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Randy Brown	25 / 58	27 / 60	0 / 1
1	Vicente Luque	27 / 50	37 / 60	0 / 0
2	Randy Brown	36 / 75	39 / 78	1 / 1
2	Vicente Luque	37 / 72	39 / 74	0 / 0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21