Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
5 Rounds
Vicente Luque won · U-DEC R5
Elo1504
Vicente Luque editorial illustration
Elo1491
Rafael Dos Anjos

Vicente LuquevsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
  • Vicente Luque has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Dos Anjos
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1504
Elo
1491
34
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque
oldest →
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25
L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26
latest
Rafael Dos AnjosL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24
L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricRafael Dos Anjos
4.80
Strikes / min
3.48
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
1.95
59%
Takedown defense
54%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1620 vs 1629Strikes5.1 vs 3.5Takedowns1.0 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.60Form-0.3 vs 0.4
Vicente LuqueRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.8|Blue -13.8
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

48
42% acc · 67%
Head
42
39% acc · 64%
17
89% acc · 24%
Body
19
83% acc · 29%
7
100% acc · 10%
Leg
5
100% acc · 8%

By position

60
47% acc · 83%
Distance
38
36% acc · 58%
8
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
26
96% acc · 39%
4
67% acc · 6%
Ground
2
50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Vicente Luque rounds
0
even
0
Rafael Dos Anjos rounds
Round 1Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:30
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:20Control
Round 2Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control2:23
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:51
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:53Control
Round 4Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:40
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 5Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control2:37
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
72 / 141
Sig Strikes
66 / 136
51.6%
Sig Str %
48.8%
138 / 221
Total Strikes
94 / 170
8 / 11
TDs
2 / 7
80%
TD %
37.5%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
12:01
Ctrl Time
3:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Dos Anjos17 / 3720 / 410 / 31
1Vicente Luque16 / 3220 / 371 / 10
2Rafael Dos Anjos10 / 2214 / 261 / 20
2Vicente Luque11 / 2632 / 482 / 20
3Rafael Dos Anjos11 / 2712 / 291 / 10
3Vicente Luque18 / 3927 / 491 / 20
4Vicente Luque10 / 1826 / 422 / 20
4Rafael Dos Anjos9 / 1520 / 270 / 10
5Rafael Dos Anjos19 / 3528 / 470 / 00
5Vicente Luque17 / 2633 / 452 / 40

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32