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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1504
Vicente Luque editorial illustration
Elo1445
Niko Price

Vicente LuquevsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:37

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Vicente Luque is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Niko Price
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1504
Elo
1445
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque
oldest →
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25
L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26
latest
Niko PriceL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alex Morono · Jun 24
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25
L
KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricNiko Price
4.80
Strikes / min
5.11
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
5.57
51%
Strike defense
48%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
1.06
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1596 vs 1557Strikes5.2 vs 3.1Takedowns0.8 vs 1.1Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.30Form0.3 vs 0.3
Vicente LuqueNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301453147514981520← oldermost recent →
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +59.4|Blue -59.4
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetNiko Price

By target zone

85
46% acc · 65%
Head
81
35% acc · 63%
8
67% acc · 6%
Body
15
60% acc · 12%
37
95% acc · 28%
Leg
33
92% acc · 26%

By position

126
55% acc · 97%
Distance
116
43% acc · 90%
1
25% acc · 1%
Clinch
9
47% acc · 7%
3
75% acc · 2%
Ground
4
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vicente Luque rounds
1
even
1
Niko Price rounds
Round 1Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes51
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:02
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Niko Price edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:23
Knockdowns1
51Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
130 / 237
Sig Strikes
129 / 291
54.7%
Sig Str %
44%
130 / 237
Total Strikes
144 / 307
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 4
—
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
1:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Niko Price38 / 10244 / 1081 / 10
1Vicente Luque51 / 7751 / 770 / 00
2Niko Price40 / 9649 / 1060 / 20
2Vicente Luque40 / 8140 / 810 / 00
3Niko Price51 / 9351 / 930 / 10
3Vicente Luque39 / 7939 / 790 / 00

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19