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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1445

Vicente LuquevsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:08

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Niko Price enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Vicente Luque is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Niko Price has lost 55% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1504

Elo

1445

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Niko PriceL4 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricNiko Price

4.80

Strikes / min

5.11

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

51%

Strike defense

48%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

1.06

59%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.4|Blue -59.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetNiko Price

By target zone

45% acc · 64%

Head

23% acc · 84%

50% acc · 5%

Body

0% acc

90% acc · 31%

Leg

80% acc · 16%

By position

55% acc · 93%

Distance

25% acc · 96%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

38% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 113

Sig Strikes

25 / 99

53.5%

Sig Str %

25%

61 / 113

Total Strikes

26 / 100

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	15 / 59	15 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	30 / 55	30 / 55	0 / 0	0
2	Niko Price	10 / 40	11 / 41	0 / 1	0
2	Vicente Luque	31 / 58	31 / 58	0 / 0	1

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19