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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1510

Vicente LuquevsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:03

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+152

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1504

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricKevin Holland

4.80

Strikes / min

4.24

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

51%

Strike defense

50%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.79

59%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.5|Blue +5.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

44% acc · 58%

Head

43% acc · 63%

50% acc · 13%

Body

83% acc · 13%

88% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 65%

Clinch

78% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 46

Sig Strikes

40 / 74

44%

Sig Str %

52%

24 / 46

Total Strikes

44 / 78

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	35 / 64	39 / 68	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	22 / 40	22 / 40	0 / 1	0
2	Kevin Holland	5 / 10	5 / 10	1 / 1	1
2	Vicente Luque	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0	0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27