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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joel Alvarez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1514

Vicente LuquevsJoel AlvarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Joel Alvarez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joel Alvarez wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Joel Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joel Alvarez at -650 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Joel Alvarez has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Joel Alvarez

Blue Corner

+410

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-650

(87%)

1504

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Joel Alvarez

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23

KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricJoel Alvarez

4.80

Strikes / min

4.53

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

51%

Strike defense

53%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.18

59%

Takedown defense

46%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueJoel Alvarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetJoel Alvarez

By target zone

22% acc · 53%

Head

57% acc · 83%

46% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 13%

67% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 62%

Clinch

Ground

71% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Joel Alvarez rounds

Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 3Joel Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 99

Sig Strikes

89 / 148

27.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

31 / 101

Total Strikes

197 / 288

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joel Alvarez	38 / 67	38 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Joel Alvarez	48 / 72	122 / 173	0 / 0	0
2	Vicente Luque	6 / 18	7 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Joel Alvarez	3 / 9	37 / 48	1 / 1	1
3	Vicente Luque	3 / 16	3 / 16	0 / 1	0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Joel Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11