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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1504

Elo1516

Vicente LuquevsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Saturday, March 30, 2024Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:17

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

-148

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1504

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.80

Strikes / min

3.62

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

1.43

59%

Takedown defense

70%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.6|Blue +11.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

16% acc · 33%

Head

38% acc · 76%

80% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 11%

77% acc · 48%

Leg

78% acc · 13%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 38%

Clinch

Ground

61% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:09

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 63

Sig Strikes

55 / 131

31.5%

Sig Str %

39.5%

22 / 65

Total Strikes

63 / 142

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0
1	Vicente Luque	15 / 42	15 / 42	0 / 2
2	Joaquin Buckley	40 / 88	48 / 99	0 / 0
2	Vicente Luque	6 / 21	7 / 23	0 / 1

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17