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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1504

Elo1507

Vicente LuquevsJalin TurnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:52

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsJalin Turner: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jalin Turner has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jalin Turner (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Jalin Turner

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1504

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Jalin Turner

oldest →

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25

KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricJalin Turner

4.80

Strikes / min

5.79

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

51%

Strike defense

41%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.75

59%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueJalin Turner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Jalin Turner(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetJalin Turner

By target zone

52% acc · 61%

Head

50% acc · 81%

100% acc · 5%

Body

83% acc · 16%

100% acc · 34%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

61% acc · 76%

Distance

53% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

89% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Jalin Turner rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 64

Sig Strikes

31 / 58

64%

Sig Str %

53%

41 / 64

Total Strikes

31 / 58

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jalin Turner	31 / 58	31 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	41 / 64	41 / 64	0 / 0	0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14