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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1504
Vicente Luque editorial illustration
Elo1358
Hector Urbina

Vicente LuquevsHector UrbinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -580 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vicente Luque is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Hector Urbina has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Vicente Luque has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Vicente Luque has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Hector Urbina
Blue Corner
-580
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+440
(19%)
1504
Elo
1358
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque
oldest →
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25
L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26
latest
Hector Urbina
oldest →
W
SUBvs Edgar Garcia · Nov 14
L
vs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricHector Urbina
4.80
Strikes / min
0.97
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
51%
Strike defense
39%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
0.00
59%
Takedown defense
38%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
3.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes21.7 vs 7.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 2.50Form0.6 vs -0.5
Vicente LuqueHector Urbina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Hector Urbina(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +146.4|Blue -146.4
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -229.0|Blue +229.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetHector Urbina

By target zone

11
50% acc · 100%
Head
4
27% acc · 80%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

8
44% acc · 73%
Distance
5
29% acc · 100%
3
75% acc · 27%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Vicente Luque rounds
0
even
0
Hector Urbina rounds
Round 1Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
11 / 22
Sig Strikes
5 / 17
50%
Sig Str %
29%
11 / 22
Total Strikes
5 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Hector Urbina5 / 175 / 170 / 10
1Vicente Luque11 / 2211 / 220 / 00

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23

Hector Urbina

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3