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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1504

Elo1491

Vicente LuquevsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:54

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1504

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricBryan Barberena

4.80

Strikes / min

5.35

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

51%

Strike defense

44%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

0.13

59%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.9|Blue -12.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

132

63% acc · 81%

Head

146

45% acc · 86%

100% acc · 10%

Body

70% acc · 9%

93% acc · 9%

Leg

88% acc · 4%

By position

140

65% acc · 86%

Distance

147

46% acc · 87%

94% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

88% acc · 4%

Ground

53% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:35

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:01

73Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes71

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

66Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

163 / 241

Sig Strikes

169 / 355

66%

Sig Str %

46.7%

164 / 242

Total Strikes

195 / 382

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	30 / 67	44 / 82	0 / 1	0
1	Vicente Luque	37 / 64	37 / 64	0 / 0	2
2	Bryan Barberena	73 / 140	78 / 145	0 / 0	0
2	Vicente Luque	55 / 83	56 / 84	0 / 0	0
3	Bryan Barberena	66 / 148	73 / 155	0 / 0	0
3	Vicente Luque	71 / 94	71 / 94	0 / 0	0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19