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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R5

Elo1504

Elo1479

Vicente LuquevsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1504

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricBelal Muhammad

4.80

Strikes / min

4.43

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

51%

Strike defense

55%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

2.14

59%

Takedown defense

90%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.2|Blue -25.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

38% acc · 64%

Head

36% acc · 85%

35% acc · 7%

Body

62% acc · 13%

92% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

45% acc · 95%

Distance

38% acc · 93%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

60% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:15

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

Round 5Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:18

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 184

Sig Strikes

60 / 155

44.6%

Sig Str %

39.8%

102 / 203

Total Strikes

136 / 260

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

71.6%

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

7:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	9 / 33	35 / 65	1 / 1
1	Vicente Luque	14 / 37	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	16 / 30	24 / 43	1 / 1
2	Vicente Luque	15 / 35	18 / 38	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	9 / 21	21 / 39	1 / 3
3	Vicente Luque	24 / 46	27 / 49	0 / 0
4	Vicente Luque	20 / 41	21 / 42	0 / 0
4	Belal Muhammad	13 / 44	41 / 78	1 / 1
5	Belal Muhammad	13 / 27	15 / 35	1 / 4
5	Vicente Luque	11 / 25	12 / 27	0 / 0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21