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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1504

Elo1479

Vicente LuquevsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:19

Style matchupVicente Luque: Pressure fightervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1504

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricBelal Muhammad

4.80

Strikes / min

4.43

5.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

51%

Strike defense

55%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

2.14

59%

Takedown defense

90%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vicente LuqueBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vicente Luque(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.2|Blue -25.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vicente LuqueTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

31% acc · 56%

Head

25% acc · 67%

67% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 22%

Leg

50% acc · 33%

By position

29% acc · 56%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vicente Luque rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

3 / 10

42%

Sig Str %

30%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

3 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Belal Muhammad	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Vicente Luque	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0	0

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21