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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Vicente Luque won · Submission R2
Elo1504
Vicente Luque editorial illustration
Elo1367
Alvaro Herrera

Vicente LuquevsAlvaro HerreraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

Submission · Round 2 · 3:52

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Alvaro Herrera has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Vicente Luque
Red Corner
VS
Alvaro Herrera
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+313
(24%)
1504
Elo
1367
34
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vicente Luque
oldest →
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25
L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26
latest
Alvaro HerreraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Vernon Ramos · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Jordan Rinaldi · Aug 17
L
KOvs Devin Powell · Jul 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vicente LuqueMetricAlvaro Herrera
4.80
Strikes / min
—
5.24
Strikes absorbed / min
—
51%
Strike defense
—
0.89
TDs / 15 min
—
59%
Takedown defense
—
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1519Strikes20.0 vs 4.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Vicente LuqueAlvaro Herrera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Alvaro Herrera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.7|Blue -137.7
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23

Alvaro Herrera

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights1