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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Veronica Hardy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1520

Elo1476

Veronica HardyvsBrogan WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Veronica Hardy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Veronica Hardy wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Veronica Hardy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Veronica Hardy at -770 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Veronica Hardy has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brogan Walker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Veronica Hardy

Red Corner

Brogan Walker

Blue Corner

-770

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+540

(16%)

1520

Elo

1476

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'4"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Veronica Hardy

oldest →

vs Juliana Miller · Mar 23

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 23

vs JJ Aldrich · May 24

vs Eduarda Moura · Nov 24

latest

Brogan WalkerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Juliana Miller · Aug 22

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Veronica HardyMetricBrogan Walker

3.06

Strikes / min

1.84

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

50%

Strike defense

47%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

1.02

51%

Takedown defense

11%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Veronica HardyBrogan Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Veronica Hardy(5 fights)Brogan Walker(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.1|Blue -44.1

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -574.0|Blue +574.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Veronica HardyTargetBrogan Walker

By target zone

48% acc · 79%

Head

24% acc · 55%

50% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

88% acc · 32%

By position

49% acc · 82%

Distance

33% acc · 73%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

44% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Veronica Hardy rounds

even

Brogan Walker rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:36

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Veronica Hardy edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 75

Sig Strikes

22 / 60

51%

Sig Str %

37.7%

53 / 94

Total Strikes

30 / 70

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brogan Walker	7 / 15	15 / 25	1 / 1	0
1	Veronica Hardy	9 / 20	23 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	Brogan Walker	8 / 25	8 / 25	1 / 2	0
2	Veronica Hardy	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0	0
3	Brogan Walker	7 / 20	7 / 20	1 / 1	0
3	Veronica Hardy	14 / 26	14 / 26	0 / 0	0

Veronica Hardy

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights5

Brogan Walker

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3