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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Iuri Alcantara won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Vaughan Lee
Elo1491

Vaughan LeevsIuri AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Iuri Alcantara won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:25

Style matchupVaughan Lee: Submission grapplervsIuri Alcantara: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Iuri Alcantara wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Iuri Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Iuri Alcantara at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vaughan Lee has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Iuri Alcantara (53.5%).
  • Iuri Alcantara has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vaughan Lee
Red Corner
VS
Iuri Alcantara
Blue Corner
+305
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-335
(77%)
1355
Elo
1491
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vaughan Lee
oldest →
L
SUBvs TJ Dillashaw · Jul 12
W
vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13
L
SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13
W
vs Nam Phan · Mar 14
L
vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15
latest
Iuri Alcantara
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Mar 17
L
SUBvs Brian Kelleher · Jun 17
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Dec 17
W
KOvs Joe Soto · Feb 18
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vaughan LeeMetricIuri Alcantara
3.47
Strikes / min
2.72
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
70%
Strike defense
49%
0.81
TDs / 15 min
1.44
72%
Takedown defense
60%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.40Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1529Strikes37.8 vs 27.1Takedowns0.7 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.71Form0.4 vs 0.3
Vaughan LeeIuri Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Vaughan Lee(8 fights)Iuri Alcantara(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.2|Blue +136.2
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vaughan LeeTargetIuri Alcantara

By target zone

3
100% acc · 75%
Head
4
50% acc · 80%
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

4
100% acc · 100%
Distance
2
33% acc · 40%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Vaughan Lee rounds
0
even
1
Iuri Alcantara rounds
Round 1Iuri Alcantara edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
4 / 4
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
100%
Sig Str %
50%
4 / 4
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Iuri Alcantara5 / 105 / 100 / 00
1Vaughan Lee4 / 44 / 40 / 00

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8

Iuri Alcantara

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17