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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tracy Cortez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1484

Vanessa MelovsTracy CortezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Tracy Cortez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVanessa Melo: StrikervsTracy Cortez: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Tracy Cortez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Vanessa Melo

Red Corner

Tracy Cortez

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1493

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vanessa Melo

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Sep 19

vs Karol Rosa · Jul 20

vs Sarah Moras · Jan 21

latest

Tracy CortezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25

DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vanessa MeloMetricTracy Cortez

3.48

Strikes / min

3.86

6.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.15

71%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.65Δ 3.50 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vanessa MeloTracy Cortez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vanessa Melo(4 fights)Tracy Cortez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.3|Blue -9.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vanessa MeloTargetTracy Cortez

By target zone

28% acc · 80%

Head

49% acc · 67%

100% acc · 18%

Body

89% acc · 20%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

77% acc · 13%

By position

27% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 58%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

84% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vanessa Melo rounds

even

Tracy Cortez rounds

Round 1Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:43Control

Round 3Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 125

Sig Strikes

79 / 140

44.7%

Sig Str %

63%

76 / 161

Total Strikes

155 / 224

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

38%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

8:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tracy Cortez	41 / 82	41 / 82	0 / 1
1	Vanessa Melo	21 / 87	22 / 88	0 / 0
2	Tracy Cortez	11 / 14	36 / 39	1 / 7
2	Vanessa Melo	6 / 9	37 / 40	0 / 0
3	Tracy Cortez	27 / 44	78 / 103	1 / 1
3	Vanessa Melo	13 / 29	17 / 33	0 / 0

Vanessa Melo

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9