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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Talita Alencar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1548

Vanessa DemopoulosvsTalita AlencarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Talita Alencar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Talita Alencar wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Talita Alencar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Talita Alencar at -104 American odds

+$96 profit

$196 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Talita Alencar has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Talita Alencar has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vanessa Demopoulos

Red Corner

Talita Alencar

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-104

(51%)

1487

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'1"

149.86 cm

Reach

147.32 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vanessa DemopoulosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 23

vs Kanako Murata · Oct 23

vs Emily Ducote · May 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Sep 24

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Jun 25

latest

Talita AlencarW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rayanne dos Santos · Dec 23

vs Stephanie Luciano · Aug 24

SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Nov 25

DECvs Julia Polastri · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vanessa DemopoulosMetricTalita Alencar

3.37

Strikes / min

3.09

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

41%

Strike defense

51%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

3.01

26%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vanessa DemopoulosTalita Alencar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vanessa Demopoulos(10 fights)Talita Alencar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.6|Blue +60.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vanessa DemopoulosTargetTalita Alencar

By target zone

29% acc · 90%

Head

58% acc · 87%

33% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

27% acc · 90%

Distance

33% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

89% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vanessa Demopoulos rounds

even

Talita Alencar rounds

Round 1Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:25Control

Round 2Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 3Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 34

Sig Strikes

45 / 75

29%

Sig Str %

56.7%

34 / 63

Total Strikes

107 / 150

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

12:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Talita Alencar	9 / 17	19 / 31	1 / 1	1
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	4 / 7	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Talita Alencar	11 / 24	40 / 55	1 / 1	0
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	6 / 20	19 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Talita Alencar	25 / 34	48 / 64	2 / 3	0
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	0 / 7	8 / 20	0 / 0	0

Vanessa Demopoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach59.0"

Fights10

Talita Alencar

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights5